TL;DR (levels & setups):
SPY: Bearish outside candle off ATH (literally a penny higher at $673.95). Watch hourly close >$656.81 for reversal entry; stop <$652.84. Could be V-bottom or start of weekly decline.
QQQ: 15-min swing low trigger >$593.24
DIA: 15-min swing low trigger >$457
IWM: 15-min swing low trigger >$238.76
SMH: 15-min swing low trigger >$328.56
BTC: Already consolidating—four-hour swing low needs close >$117,224. One-hour entry >$115,156.
ETH: Already printed four-hour swing low >$4,025—leading the rebound.
DXY: Week 3-4 of potential weekly cycle; daily swing high risk <$98.70.
10Y: Daily swing high <$4.11; weekly still in long decline.
Gold/Silver: Extended (Day 50+)—watch $3,944/$48.48 breakdown for decline start.
GDX: Already printing swing high <$76.69—leading metals lower.
Uranium/Energy: Held up Friday = relative strength—ride these on the rebound.
Welcome to Friday’s Washout
It’s October 12, 2025, and we had a big down day on Friday. Really important implications here. Let’s jump right into it.
SPY: Three Scenarios from Here
Scenario 1: Friday was the bottom. Given the magnitude of this downdraft, there’s a decent chance that’s it.
Scenario 2: This is just the beginning of a daily cycle decline and a weekly cycle decline.
Scenario 3: Short, sharp reset before continuation.
Let’s talk levels.
Daily Chart: The Nastiest Candle
This looks like a daily cycle low back on September 25—a very short decline, then we rallied for 11 days. Friday was a new ATH. But here’s what makes Friday so nasty:
Friday high: $673.95
Thursday high: $673.94
This thing made a new all-time high literally by a penny before reversing. If you’ve been watching this channel, you know what this is: a bearish outside candle.
One of the most pernicious patterns. It catches everyone up at the highs, then violent reversal. Look what it did—took out all the gains since September 25 and even closed below that low. That makes it a pretty good candidate for a washout.
This could be Day 50 (really long daily cycle), or the start of a new decline, or some kind of short cycle. You don’t get a huge down day like this very often.
Weekly Chart: Week 26 Rally
This was Week 26—a really long rally. Looking back, we haven’t had a 26-week rally since the COVID rebound (that’s like five years). This is most likely a weekly cycle high.
The question: Do we get a really ugly move down, or just one more candle lower—close below the 10-week MA and back up? I suspect it’s going to be a V-bottom.
The Practical Trade Setup
Structurally, it’s going to be really hard to print a daily swing low. We’d need to close at an all-time high just to confirm it. That’s too late. You can’t wait for a daily swing low—you’ve missed too much of the trade.
Hourly Chart: The Entry
Zoom to the hourly. Selling started around 10:30 AM Friday—big chop, then lower lows all day. No reversal on the hourly.
What you’re looking for Monday:
Close above the high of Friday’s consolidation candle: $656.81
Entry: Buy stop at ~$657
Stop: Below the low of Friday’s candle at ~$653 (actual low $652.84)
Target: Back to all-time highs
Even More Aggressive: 15-Minute Chart
If you want to get ahead of it, drop to the 15-minute. Same swing low level applies: $656.81.
How to play it:
Enter on the swing low confirmation
Trail your stops as it moves up
As you pass each 15-min period, move your stop to the prior low
Walk your stop up—even if this is the bottom, you’ll probably get a pullback
You should see bigger up candles and smaller down candles—that’s your momentum tell.
The Bear Case: Monthly Candle
We’re early in the month. There’s time for this to become a bearish monthly outside candle too. That would mean going below $633 (September low). Just like Friday’s bearish daily and this week’s bearish weekly, we could stack a bearish monthly on top. That’s the real bear case.
Other Major Indices: Same Story, Different Levels
QQQ: 15-min swing low >$593.24
DIA: 15-min swing low >$457
IWM: 15-min swing low >$238.76
SMH: 15-min swing low >$328.56
DXY: Building a Base
Dixie’s trying to build a base on the weekly. Swing low back the last week of June, now we’ve set another swing low (slightly lower). Consolidated for three weeks—very possible this was a weekly cycle low, which means we just finished Week 3 heading into Week 4.
Generally, DXY moves inverse to markets. If this is in its weekly uptrend, that lends credence to equities starting a weekly downtrend.
The catch: We could have a really short, shallow weekly downtrend that becomes a big buying opportunity. That’s what I expect.
Daily Chart
Day 17 on Friday. First bearish signal: close below $98.70—that would make Thursday a daily swing high and start a potential cycle decline.
Monthly
Working on a monthly swing low. Close above $98.64 confirms it.
10-Year Yield: Moving Inverse to DXY
They were moving in lockstep at one point—now they’re moving against each other.
Daily: Swing high confirmed by closing below $4.11. Appears to be Day 21 of the daily cycle.
Weekly: Still inside the giant consolidation range. Had a little swing low above $4.10, now we’re below that slightly. Break above $4.10 = back in business. Otherwise, continuation of the weekly decline (~30-40 week cycles historically).
Crypto: Already Leading the Rebound
Crypto was already printing a swing high Friday—unlike equities making new highs. But they still got pummeled Friday. Big down candle.
But notice what’s happening Sunday: Bitcoin is making a new high on the daily.
Bitcoin: Four-Hour Chart
BTC would need to close above $122,600 for a daily swing low—that’s too long. You’ve missed too much of the trade.
Look at the four-hour chart instead. Big down candle Friday with a range:
Low: $107,000 (clear line in the sand)
High: $117,224
Once we break above that, we have a clear four-hour swing low and a strong signal for a daily swing low.
One-Hour Entry
Even tighter: Friday’s last one-hour candle made the lower low. We need to break above $115,156 for a one-hour swing low.
Stop: $113,246 for a short leash.
It’s a little late to get in here, but this is still building a base.
Ethereum: Already Confirmed 🔥
ETH is making a higher high on the daily. Look at the four-hour chart—ETH has already made a four-hour swing low by closing above $4,025.
Really nice signal. Another four-hour candle above that is building now (closes in ~2 hours from recording).
Stop: Around $4,020.
Sunday is going to be an important day for crypto. We’ve already started the rebound. I got in when it broke the base—there was a gigantic candle, so it was hard to catch early, but breaking that base is where you get in.
Weekly: Bull Flags Forming
Look at what this left behind—nice little wick. This is all setting up to be a gigantic bull flag that’s gonna break up. Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a similar pattern.
Precious Metals: Running on Steam
Gold
Broke the psychological $4,000 level we expected. But look at the weekly chart—it’s gotta pause. Way elevated above the 10-week MA. That’s aggressive.
Daily: Day 50—stretched on both daily and weekly.
Breakdown level: <$3,944 would be your daily swing high and first signal we’re starting a decline.
Silver
Similar structure. Breakdown <$48.48.
GDX (Miners): Already Leading Lower
GDX already printing a swing high by closing below $76.69—that’s interesting. It’s leading the others.
Friday was just an inside day while everything else nuked. That’s actually a sign of relative strength going forward. Reclaim >$76.69 for upside continuation.
Platinum
Closed a swing high Friday by closing below $1,628.
Weekly: Ugly shooting star spinning top, but not a swing high yet. Next week, close below $1,593 = swing high confirmed.
Natural Gas: Stay Away
Not looking good. Relatively early in a daily cycle decline—clean swing high on Wednesday’s bearish outside candle by closing below $3.03.
Weekly swing low hasn’t triggered yet (would be <$2.88), so there’s a little hope if we stay above that. But I’d stay away.
Uranium: Relative Strength = Ride the Rebound
URA
Shooting star Friday, but not a swing high. Watch for a break below $51.51.
CCJ
Breakdown <$86.35.
URNM
Breakdown <$60.99.
Notice: These things did not break down the way everything else did Friday. When the market rebounds, these are the horses you want to ride—uranium names, energy names.
Game Plan
I think we’re going to have a very fast recovery. It’s possible Friday was even the bottom, but this is what we needed—the markets needed to reset.
I’m excited. And I hope you are too.
You know your levels now.
Not financial advice. I trade levels and cycles; manage risk, let price prove it.
💬 Drop a comment—what are you watching Monday?
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