Market Overview:
SPY & Major Indices:
SPY is following a classic compound bullish outside candle pattern.
This new weekly cycle suggests more upside ahead, with a potential test of all-time highs.
Watch for continuation next week, with risk levels set below 600.
QQQ & DIA:
QQQ followed a deeper weekly cycle low but remains in a strong uptrend.
DIA is leading the charge, sitting just below all-time highs at 450—a sign of strength.
Semiconductors (SMH):
SMH gapped down due to Nvidia’s drop, but now it’s filling the gap—a bullish signal.
Expect a test of 260, which will be the moment of truth for continuation.
Crypto: Bitcoin & Ethereum
Bitcoin (BTC):
BTC has been consolidating for 10 weeks—forming a classic bull flag pattern.
This still leans bullish, and a breakout could send prices significantly higher.
Ethereum (ETH):
ETH has lagged behind Bitcoin but is still forming higher lows.
Watching 3,250 as a breakout level.
Dollar, Bonds, and Commodities
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
The dollar may have found a short-term low, but the broader trend looks like a bear flag setting up for more downside.
10-Year Treasury Yield & TLT:
Yields are in a weekly cycle decline, while TLT (bonds) is still searching for a confirmed bottom.
Gold & Silver:
Precious metals are early in a new weekly cycle, with GDX leading the way.
Gold needs to hold above 2,770, while silver’s risk level is around 31.
Oil & Natural Gas:
Oil remains in a downtrend, consolidating within a large range.
Natural gas just broke key support—watch for potential continuation lower unless a false breakdown occurs.
Final Thoughts & What to Watch Next:
We are only in week two of this new weekly cycle, meaning more upside could be ahead before any larger consolidation. However, given how deep we are into this rally (27 months), it’s important to stay disciplined with stops and not chase moves.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✔️ Stocks remain in an uptrend, but watch for resistance at prior highs.
✔️ Bitcoin & Ethereum are consolidating in bullish formations—breakouts may be coming.
✔️ DXY & bond yields look weak—bullish for risk assets.
✔️ Gold, silver, and GDX are in early-stage weekly cycle uptrends.
✔️ Oil & natural gas remain weak, with downside risks still present.
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