Introduction:
Welcome to this week’s market update! As of February 16, 2025, we’re seeing some divergence across asset classes:
✅ QQQ has hit new all-time highs, while SPY is just below its peak
✅ Gold & Silver are extended, showing signs of a short-term pullback
✅ The U.S. Dollar (DXY) and 10-year yield are in decline, supporting risk assets
✅ Natural Gas is rebounding—potential early trend change?
However, we are late in key daily cycles across multiple assets, meaning we need to be cautious with risk management. Let's break it down.
Stock Market Update: SPY, QQQ, DIA
SPY: Sitting just below all-time highs but late in the daily cycle (Day 23).
Key support: 609 → 607.
Potential upside: Rally could continue for another week or two, but expect resistance.
QQQ: Stronger than SPY, already in price discovery mode.
Key level: Needs to stay above 535.67 for continuation.
Ratio charts show QQQ outperforming SPY—favoring tech over broader indices.
DIA (Dow Jones): Underperforming relative to SPY & QQQ.
Still consolidating inside a tight weekly range.
Needs to break above 448 or below 441 to confirm direction.
Sector Rotation: QQQ vs. SPY & SMH (Semiconductors) Strength
QQQ/SPY Ratio: Strong breakout suggests tech is leading the market.
SMH (Semiconductors):
Day 14 of the daily cycle—not too late for upside.
Massive weekly gap from Nvidia selloff is being filled.
Target: 258-260 zone before resistance.
Crypto: Bitcoin & Ethereum Still Consolidating
Bitcoin: Holding bullish flag pattern, still in high-tight consolidation.
As long as BTC stays above $91K-$94K, trend remains intact.
Potential for explosive breakout, but patience is key.
Ethereum: Weaker than BTC, but holding structure.
Needs to stay above $2,500 for bullish structure to remain valid.
The Dollar, Bonds, and Yields
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Breaking down further—expecting continued downside.
Target: 105.74
10-Year Treasury Yield:
Weak, declining into Week 21 of its cycle.
A move below 4.44% would signal a deeper breakdown.
TLT (Bonds): Still trying to confirm a cycle low.
Key risk level: 86.86.
If TLT holds, could signal continued downtrend in yields.
Commodities: Gold, Silver, and Oil
Gold & Silver:
Gold has rallied for 37 days, now entering a daily cycle decline.
Short-term pullback likely before next leg up.
Watch for a break below $2,854 for confirmation.
Oil: Still stuck in a range—no clear trend.
Break below $70.36 could send price to $67.
Final Thoughts & Risk Management
Markets remain bullish, but late-cycle risk is rising.
🔹 Short-term: Some upside still possible, but expect volatility & potential pullbacks.
🔹 Mid-term: Favor tech (QQQ, SMH) over industrials (DIA, IWM).
🔹 Risk: Gold & silver looking stretched, Bitcoin still waiting on a breakout.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✔️ Stocks are bullish, but cycle timing suggests being cautious.
✔️ QQQ is leading—favor tech over broader indices.
✔️ Crypto remains in consolidation—no breakout yet.
✔️ Gold & silver need a short-term reset.
✔️ DXY is weak—bullish for risk assets.
Call to Action:
Stay sharp on key technical levels, and manage risk as we enter late-cycle moves.
💬 What are you watching this week? Drop a comment below!
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