Introduction:
Welcome to this week’s market update! As of February 7, 2025, we’re seeing some major shifts in market momentum. After weeks of consolidation, multiple bearish outside candles have formed across key indices and assets, signaling potential further downside.
In this update, we’ll analyze:
✅ SPY, QQQ, and DIA: Are we at the start of a multi-month consolidation?
✅ Bitcoin & Ethereum: Weakness continues—waiting for a breakout.
✅ Gold & Silver: Strong weekly cycles, but are daily declines ahead?
✅ The U.S. Dollar & Bonds: DXY showing signs of continued weakness.
Stock Market Update: SPY, QQQ, DIA
SPY: Closed just above 600, maintaining a key risk level.
Daily cycle: 18 days in, expecting further downside before a bounce.
Weekly cycle: If we topped out on Week 1, this could be the start of a bigger decline.
Key levels: Needs to reclaim 602.63 to shift back bullish.
QQQ: Formed a bearish outside candle—short-term caution.
Needs to get back above 525.74 to regain strength.
DIA (Dow Jones): The strongest of the three, but still showing signs of topping.
Needs to reclaim 445.39 for further upside.
Crypto: Bitcoin & Ethereum in High-Tight Consolidation
Bitcoin: 11 weeks of sideways action—big move coming soon.
Support to watch: $91,000
Resistance: Needs to break out or risk further downside.
Ethereum: Weakness relative to Bitcoin.
Key level: Watch for a potential buying opportunity if it drops below $2,000.
Bonds, the U.S. Dollar, and Interest Rates
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
Bearish outside candle on the weekly chart—expecting further downside.
Weekly cycle decline likely to continue for at least 2 more weeks.
10-Year Treasury Yield:
Holding key levels but showing signs of a potential bottoming process.
A move above 4.6% would confirm a swing low.
TLT (Bonds):
Unclear whether Week 11 is a new cycle decline or if we’re forming a weekly bottom.
Key level: Needs to stay above 88.50 to remain in a bullish posture.
Gold, Silver, and Commodities
Gold: Strong weekly uptrend, but struggling to hold gains.
Short-term caution as upper wicks form.
$3,000 remains a long-term target, but expect pullbacks.
Silver: Same setup as gold, showing early signs of a daily cycle decline.
Watch for a break below $31.76 to confirm.
Oil: Heading toward $66, but still stuck inside a broader range.
Natural Gas:
Early in a weekly cycle decline—not a time to step in.
Needs to break below $3.28 to continue the downtrend.
Final Thoughts: A Turning Point?
Right now, markets are at an important inflection point.
📉 Bearish outside candles signal caution—especially in equities.
📈 Bitcoin remains in high-tight consolidation, waiting for a catalyst.
💰 Gold & silver are strong but short-term extended.
💵 The dollar & bonds suggest downside continuation.
Short-term, I expect lower lows before any major bounce. Let’s watch how price action unfolds and adjust accordingly.
📌 What are you watching this week? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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