Markets are in pullback mode after the Fed meeting, but most charts suggest this is a healthy reset within longer-term uptrends. The key question: is this a routine daily cycle decline, or the start of a deeper weekly pullback? We break it all down by ticker with levels to watch.
📈 S&P 500 ($SPY)
Weekly Count: Week 10
Daily Count: Day 18
Swing High Active Below: $597.50
Current Risk Level: $592.86
Critical Weekly Support: $592.86
Bullish Trigger: Close above $599.46
Gap Fill Watch: $577.15 area
Outlook: Possibly in a daily cycle decline. If we hold or reclaim $593, bulls are in control. A deeper pullback could target the gap near $577—but would still be structurally bullish.
🧠 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)
Swing High Active Below: $530.11
Current Risk Level: $524.88
Gap Zone: $514.48 to $492.70
Bullish Trigger: Close above $530.11
Outlook: Bearish outside candle on Friday. Daily structure suggests caution, but weekly chart still consolidating near highs. Gap below worth monitoring.
🏛️ Dow Jones ($DIA)
Swing High Active Below: $426.96
Current Risk Level: $420.72
Outlook: Dow is lagging. Consolidating toward the lower end of its range. Watch for relative weakness vs. SPY.
🧬 Russell 2000 ($IWM)
Swing High Active Below: $212.71
Current Risk Level: $207.78
Weekly Risk Level: $207.65
Outlook: Pulling back more aggressively than other indices. Watch for potential outperformance after the dust settles. Still holding a green monthly candle—first of the year.
🔧 Semiconductors ($SMH)
Swing High Active Below: $259.69
Current Risk Level: $257.22
Weekly Inside Range: $257.22–$265.53
Microstructure (15m chart): Range-bound between $260.83 and $258.61
Outlook: Doji week signals indecision. Looks ready for a breakout—or breakdown. Watching for move outside current intraday range.
💵 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
Weekly Count: Week 8 (in decline)
Daily Count: Day 6
Daily Swing High Trigger: Close below 98.75
Weekly Breakdown Level: 97.60
Outlook: Weekly cycle still in decline. A new daily cycle bounce may already be topping out. Expect more downside through Q3.
📉 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX)
Weekly Count: Week 11
Consolidation Range: 4.32–4.54%
Outlook: Four weeks of chop. Nothing actionable until we break out of the range.
📈 TLT (20+ Year Bonds ETF)
Weekly Swing Low Active Above: $85.80
Current Range: $85.80–$87.20
Outlook: Possible early weekly cycle low forming. Close above $87.20 would confirm upward momentum.
🪙 Bitcoin ($BTCUSD)
Weekly Count: Week 10
Daily Count: Day 16
Swing High Active Below: $106,553
Risk Level (Friday’s Low): $102,357
Critical Weekly Level: $102,105
Bullish Trigger: Close above $104,013
Outlook: False breakout potential from bearish daily candle. Must hold $102K to avoid confirming a deeper correction. Still in uptrend on higher timeframes.
🧠 Ethereum ($ETHUSD)
Critical Support: $2,300
Weekly Consolidation Range: $2,300–$2,800
Outlook: Sideways consolidation after strong move. Holding the high end of range. Watch ETH/BTC ratio for signs of breakout.
🏅 Gold ($XAUUSD)
Weekly Count: Week 5
Daily Count: Day 24
Key Support: $3,294
Outlook: Likely in a shallow daily cycle pullback. Still early in a new weekly cycle. Bias remains to the upside—especially if gold holds above $3,294.
⛏️ Gold Miners ($GDX)
Weekly Count: Week 5
Weekly Range: $51.12–$54.70
Outlook: Confirmed new weekly cycle. Consolidation near highs is healthy—still watching for breakout.
🥈 Silver ($XAGUSD)
Weekly Range: $35.52–$37.31
Outlook: Expecting another week of chop. Breakout or false breakdown below $35.52 could trigger strong move.
🪨 Platinum ($PL=F)
Daily Count: Day 48
Swing High Active Below: $1,250
Weekly Count: Week 10
Risk Level: $1,161
Outlook: Likely started daily cycle decline. Longer-term structure still strong. Let pullback play out—then watch for buy signal.
⚛️ Uranium ($CCJ, $URNM, $URA)
$CCJ:
Daily Swing High Active Below: $68.27
Gap Below: $60.54–$62.59
Risk Level: Close below $67.76 confirms weekly swing high
$URNM:
Daily Swing High Active Below: $55.36
Weekly Swing High Trigger: $45.21
$URA:
Daily Swing High Active Below: $37.38
Weekly Swing High Trigger: $36.70
Outlook: Pullbacks underway. Likely entering weekly cycle decline. Watch for gap fills to set up reentry opportunities.
🔥 Natural Gas ($NG1!)
Weekly Count: Week 8
Daily Swing High Active Below: $3.75
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close below $3.52
Daily Range (Friday): $3.75–$4.07
Outlook: Bearish outside candle suggests cycle top may be in. Watch $3.52 closely. Weekly structure still messy.
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