Intro:
Bitcoin is now in month 30 of its long-term cycle and appears to be entering price discovery. Previous cycles have topped around month 35, suggesting there could be 5+ months of upside remaining.
Meanwhile, SPY, QQQ, and semiconductors continue to consolidate near major breakout levels. Gold may be cooling off, but crypto is leading.
This week’s breakdown includes:
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle progression
SPY, QQQ, and SMH short-term levels
Gold, silver, and miners mid-cycle behavior
Natural gas breakout developing
Let’s dive in.
🪙 Bitcoin ($BTC): 4-Year Cycle Top Approaching?
Month 30 of long-term cycle; previous tops occurred in Month 35
Weekly cycle: Week 4
Structure suggests 3–4 months of upside remain
Price discovery likely above all-time highs
Monthly and annual charts echo previous cycle runs
Ratio vs SPY accelerating—BTC is outperforming traditional assets
📌 Tactical Level:
4-hour bull flag: support at $103,070; resistance at $105,000
Watch for false breakdowns and breakout extensions
💻 Ethereum ($ETH): Finally Waking Up
Still in Week 4 of current weekly cycle
Monthly swing low forming after waterfall decline
ETH/BTC ratio showing a monthly swing low for the first time in years
4-hour bull flag forming—support at ~$2,436
If BTC tops later in 2025, ETH is likely to follow, with bigger % upside still possible.
📊 SPY: Still Consolidating, Day 23 of Rally
Daily cycle high likely in place after 23 days of rally
Below $561.70 = daily swing high → sets up daily cycle decline
Weekly chart shows an inside candle setup
Monthly swing low still not confirmed—needs breakout above $567.42
📌 Pullback = opportunity, not panic.
Use the 50% retracement zone near $557 for re-entry.
📈 QQQ: Holding the Lead
Already confirmed monthly swing low above $479.56
Daily swing high forms below $484.17
Upside target: $512
Like SPY, next pullback likely to be buyable
$QQQ/$SPY ratio turning higher—tech still leading
🏛️ DIA (Dow): Still Lagging
No monthly swing low yet — needs to clear $423.44
Below $411.57 = daily swing high
Still not participating like QQQ or SMH
Wait for strength to rotate in
🔧 IWM (Small Caps): Starting to Move
Still needs trade above $203.33 for monthly swing low
Daily structure remains constructive
IWM/SPY ratio showing early signs of bullish rotation
TNA needs to break $30.90 to confirm monthly swing
Small caps could fuel a broader market catch-up rally.
🧠 SMH (Semiconductors): Outperformance is Back
Monthly swing low confirmed above $216.61
Still below long-term resistance at $227 and $235
SMH/SPY ratio bottoming → early reversal signal
Weekly and daily charts show constructive consolidation
Semis were first to top in 2024. They may be first to bottom now.
🌍 Macro Overview: DXY and Rates
$DXY (US Dollar Index)
Weekly cycle in Week 2 after bottoming on Week 30
Daily cycle: Day 14 → Top likely soon
Monthly chart = inside candle, no direction yet
Resistance zone near 102.29—watch closely
Short-term bounce likely fades. Macro trend still bearish.
$TNX (10-Year Yield)
Weekly cycle: Week 5
Daily cycle: Day 18
Consolidating above 4.33%, resistance at 4.44%
Weekly chart shows bullish higher low
Yields may continue rising short-term—but range-bound environment persists.
$TLT / $TBT
$TLT in Week 16 of a declining cycle
Range-bound between $90 and $85.67
$TBT holding support above $35.33—bullish short-term
No clear breakout or breakdown yet.
🛢️ Oil: Potential Double Bottom
Forming base at $55.16
Resistance at $65 → breakout zone
Still vulnerable, but constructive if it clears resistance
Monthly chart hints at possible test of mid-40s if $55 fails.
🟡 Gold, Silver & Miners
$GC (Gold)
Weekly cycle: Week 18
Daily swing low attempt forming
Support: $3,275
Inside weekly candle setup: $3,437 / $3,237 range
Still in Month 32 of 8-year cycle → could run into late 2025
Like Bitcoin, may be rallying toward long-term cycle peak.
$SI (Silver)
Less stable than gold
Inside weekly candle: $33.32 / $31.98
Direction hinges on gold follow-through
$GDX (Miners)
Weekly structure stronger than metals
Support: $46.73
Tracking closely with gold—will follow its lead
🔥 Natural Gas ($UNG): Early Upside
Weekly cycle low confirmed
Daily cycle: Day 11
Upside target: $4.00 congestion zone
Momentum is building. Plenty of room to rally, even if left-translated.
✅ Final Takeaways:
$BTC is running toward its 4-year top—and $ETH is starting to catch up
$SPY and $QQQ likely hit daily cycle highs—pullbacks are expected
Semis, small caps, and natural gas show early bullish rotation
Gold cooling but still structurally strong
The next few weeks could shape the rest of 2025
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$BTC: $103,070 → bull flag support
$ETH: $2,436
$SPY: $561.70 (swing high trigger) | $567.42 (monthly swing confirmation)
$QQQ: $484.17 (swing high) | $479.56 (monthly hold)
$SMH: $227–$235 resistance
$UNG: $4.00 upside target
Share this post