Markets are digesting a move to new all-time highs. While daily cycle highs may be forming, longer-term trends remain bullish. The big question: will we see shallow pullbacks that hold structure or deeper resets that set up new opportunities? We break down the price action across equities, crypto, commodities, and rates.
$SPY
Daily Cycle Count: Friday was day 23
Weekly Count: Week 11
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $565.75
Quarterly Candle: Confirmed bullish outside candle
Outlook: Daily cycle rally may be nearing exhaustion, but structure remains bullish. Weekly trend intact. Watch for pullback and consolidation above key levels.
$QQQ
Daily Cycle Count: Friday was day 23
Weekly Count: Week 11
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $479.20
Quarterly Candle: No bullish outside candle yet
Outlook: New all-time highs achieved. Trend is bullish, but we may be due for consolidation or a short-term pullback.
$DIA
Daily Cycle Count: Friday was day 23
Needs to Break Above: $447 for new all-time high
Daily Swing High Active Below: $430.38
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $421.92
Outlook: Still trailing QQQ and SPY. Catch-up potential. Monthly trend still constructive.
$IWM
Daily Cycle Count: Friday was day 23
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $202.77
Daily Candle Range (Friday): $217.41 (high) – $214.10 (low)
Outlook: Red day Friday. Inside daily candle setting up. Watch for breakout or breakdown next week. Still trailing large caps.
$SMH
Daily Cycle Count: Friday was day 23
Daily Candle Range (Friday): $280.50 (high) – $275.64 (low)
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $225.00
Quarterly Candle: Bullish outside candle
Outlook: Near-term consolidation likely. Longer-term trend remains bullish, AI narrative supportive.
$DXY
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 9 (decline)
Bearish Outside Weekly Candle: Active
Monthly Cycle Count: Month 23 of long-term decline
Outlook: Trend remains down. Rebound attempts likely to fail. Expect continued weakness unless levels are reclaimed.
$TNX (10-Year Yield)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12 (probable decline)
Weekly Range to Watch: 4.11% (support) – 4.59% (resistance)
Structure: Consolidation inside large April candle
Outlook: Still inside range. Bearish momentum increasing. Watch reaction at 4.11%.
$TLT
Weekly Swing Low Active Above: $85.80
Weekly Count: Week 5
Daily Cycle Count: Day 24
Outlook: Grinding higher with lots of back-and-fill. Still in bullish setup unless key levels fail.
$BTCUSD
Daily Cycle Count (Alt 1): Day 24 (failed cycle)
Daily Cycle Count (Alt 2): Day 7 (if new cycle just started)
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Below $98,225
Key Resistance to Reclaim: $109,000
Outlook: Still consolidating. Watch 4-hour and daily reclaim of $106.4K or break below $98.2K for clues.
$ETHUSD
Weekly Support Level: $2,111
Daily Reclaim Target: $2,381
Outlook: Consolidating just below prior breakout level. Watch BTC for direction.
$XAUUSD (Gold)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 29 (likely near DCL)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $3,340
Support Zone: $3,200
Outlook: Watch for shallow daily cycle low to print soon. Bullish structure remains.
$GDX
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $51.47
Outlook: Consolidating, watching for reclaim of $51.47 as long trigger.
$XAGUSD (Silver)
Weekly Range: $36.83 (high) – $35.29 (low)
Outlook: Doji weekly candle. Watch breakout or breakdown from this range.
$PLAT (Platinum)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 58
Daily Swing High Formed Below: $1,320
Outlook: Overextended on daily. Likely DCL coming. Bullish on higher timeframes.
$NG1! (Natural Gas)
Daily Swing Low Confirmed Above: $3.46
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 9
Support: $3.28
Outlook: Breakout setup with higher low in place. Watching for continuation above $4.20.
$CCJ, $URA, $URNM (Uranium)
Weekly Count: Week 11 (possible top)
Monthly Swing Lows Active
Outlook: Beautiful longer-term structure. Near-term pullback likely. Watch for support holds and swing low re-entries.
Share this post