Intro:
Markets appear to have bottomed, and we’re now testing or approaching all-time highs. But as we often say: bottoming is a process—and topping is too. This week, signs point to an imminent daily cycle decline across assets, but the broader trend remains bullish.
This week’s update includes:
$BTC’s path toward its 4-year cycle top
SPY and QQQ late in their daily cycles
Gold’s ongoing 8-year cycle setup
Bearish reversals in natural gas
Let’s get into it.
🪙 Bitcoin (#BTCUSD): Early in the Move Toward the Long-Term Top
Currently in Week 5 of the new weekly cycle
Month 30 of the 4-year cycle; previous tops came in Month 35–38
Price consolidating near recent highs; forming a bull flag
Daily cycle is ~41 days old → a pullback is overdue
Key support: $100,703 (weekly low)
Break below, then recovery = false breakdown setup
Bitcoin still looks like it could rally into the end of 2025, but expect volatility in the short term.
💻 Ethereum (#ETHUSD): Fading After a Brief Lead
ETH briefly outperformed $BTC, but has lost relative strength
Consolidating in a messy bull flag
Weekly structure = Week 5, same as $BTC
Support to hold: $2,317
Monthly swing high risk if price breaks $2,400
Caution is warranted here. Structure is weaker than Bitcoin for now.
📊 SPY: A Pullback Is Coming—And That’s Healthy
Day 28 of the current daily rally
Past daily cycles peaked at Day 23–30
Gap support: $577–$567
Weekly cycle: Week 5, early in broader rally
Daily swing high would trigger below $589.28
Expect a pullback soon. Use it to reload, not panic.
📈 QQQ: Stronger Than SPY, But Same Setup
Day 28 of rally
Gap support: $501.48–$490
Daily swing high forms below $517.10
Monthly swing low remains active as long as price stays above $479
Trend is strong—but late. Stay nimble here.
🏛️ DIA (Dow): Finally Confirmed a Monthly Swing Low
Monthly swing low confirmed above $423.44
Daily swing high forms below $422.50
Structure is improving, but still trailing QQQ and SPY
🔧 IWM (Small Caps): Still Holding
Monthly swing low holds above $203.33
Daily swing high would activate below $207.78
Rotation into small caps still unfolding—watch for relative strength
🧠 SMH (Semiconductors): Key Indicator for the Broader Market
Monthly swing low confirmed above $216.61
Weekly high set last Wednesday; failed to break it Friday
Watch $245.60 → break below confirms daily swing high
Break above $247.61 would resume uptrend
SMH often leads—this stall may be the earliest warning
🌍 DXY (Dollar Index): Top Likely In
Weekly cycle: Week 4
Daily cycle: Day 19
Break below 101.51 = daily swing high
Break below 101.27 = weekly swing and likely weekly cycle top
Still in a long-term downtrend. This bounce looks temporary.
📉 TNX (10-Year Yield): Bullish But Range-Bound
Weekly cycle: Week 5
Daily cycle: Day 18
Inside week likely: $4.55% / $4.39% range
Still in long-term consolidation, but short-term strength remains
🛢️ Oil: Bottoming—But Still Unconfirmed
Trying to hold above $55.16
Weekly inside range: $63.86 / $60.61
Need a break above resistance to confirm this double bottom
Bullish setup forming, but still at risk
🟡 Gold ($GC): Waiting on a Cycle Low
Weekly cycle: Week 19, now moving into Week 20
Weekly swing high confirmed below $3,260
Possible daily swing low forming above $3,240
Monthly chart: Month 33 of 8-year cycle → potential top late 2025
Support zone to watch: $3,168
Pullback still in progress. Use daily swing low as re-entry trigger.
🪙 Silver ($SI) and $GDX (Miners): Follow Gold’s Lead
$SI is weaker, stuck in $33.68 / $31.60 range
$GDX topped in Week 16, now consolidating
Key support: $40.26
Break below, then recovery = potential bullish setup
Miners will follow gold—wait for confirmation.
🔥 Natural Gas ($UNG): Bearish Reversal
Weekly cycle likely topped on Week 3
Weekly bearish outside candle printed
Daily cycle: Day 16 → more room to decline
Break below $3.34 confirms top
Only bullish case: close above $3.40 to form a daily swing low
Short-term downside likely. A flush would reset the chart for another entry.
✅ Final Takeaways:
The market looks like it’s bottomed, but short-term pullbacks are due
Daily cycle highs are forming across BTC, SPY, QQQ, and yields
These pullbacks = opportunities—not trend reversals
Gold, miners, and natural gas still need to base
Bitcoin remains the cleanest long-term trend
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$BTC: $100,703 → watch for breakdown + recovery
$ETH: $2,317 support | $2,400 = swing high risk
$SPY: $589.28 = swing high trigger | $577–$567 gap fill
$QQQ: $517.10 = swing high
$SMH: $245.60 support | $247.61 breakout
$GC: $3,240 swing low trigger | $3,168 support
$UNG: $3.34 breakdown risk
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