he market is extended on the daily chart, with most major indices approaching the end of their daily cycle rallies. We’re on Day 27 for $SPY, and while price discovery continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a near-term pullback—potentially even next week.
But context is everything: we're still advancing in the weekly cycle (Week 12), and monthly and quarterly charts look extremely bullish. This means any pullback could serve as a healthy reset for the next leg higher.
Let’s break it down by ticker 👇
$SPY – S&P 500
Daily Swing High Active Below: $622.43
Weekly Swing High Risk Level: $615.40
Next Target if Pullback Deepens: $575 (gap fill)
Outlook: Day 27 of daily rally. Could see a 50% retracement (26pt drop) that fills the May gap. Still in strong long-term uptrend.
$QQQ – Nasdaq 100
Daily Swing High Active Below: $553.18
Weekly Swing High Risk Level: $544.66
Outlook: New all-time high. Still strong, but due for a pause. Watch $553 on any weakness.
$DIA – Dow Jones
Daily Swing High Risk Level: $445.57
Weekly Level to Watch: $438.66
Outlook: Playing catch-up. Structure still bullish, but lagging tech.
$IWM – Russell 2000
Daily Swing High Risk Level: $221.77
Weekly Support: $214.15
Monthly Resistance: ~$235 (all-time high zone)
Outlook: No new all-time high yet. Catch-up trade forming. Watch for breakout attempt above $235.
$SMH – Semiconductors
Daily Swing High Active Below: $282.31
Weekly Support: $272.16
Outlook: Slightly weaker candle, but part of larger trend. Month 3 of new long-term rally. Still looks strong.
$DXY – U.S. Dollar Index
Daily Swing Low Active Above: 96.95
Weekly Resistance: 97.92
Outlook: Likely just a pause in a longer-term downtrend. Short-term bounce possible, but still bearish bias.
$TNX – 10-Year Treasury Yield
Daily Swing Low Active Above: 4.28%
Range to Watch: 4.19% – 4.52%
Outlook: Attempting bounce. Watch for rejection at upper range. Still consolidating inside April range.
$TLT – 20+ Year Treasuries ETF
Daily Swing High Active Below: $87.66
Weekly Support: $85.80
Outlook: Late in daily cycle. Daily swing high could lead to pullback. Watch for higher low if $85.80 holds.
$BTC – Bitcoin
4-Hour Structure Support: $106K
Weekly Line in the Sand: $98,225
Outlook: Bull flag structure still intact. Breakout above $109K confirms continuation toward $150K target.
$ETH – Ethereum
Daily Support: $2,372
Weekly Range: $2,113 – $2,637
Outlook: Coiling. Breakout likely once BTC moves. Could explode from tight range.
$XAUUSD – Gold
Daily Range to Watch: $3,312 – $3,365
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $3,340
Outlook: Day 4 of new daily cycle. Pullback likely ending. Monthly chart still bullish heading into 8-year cycle top.
$XAGUSD – Silver
Weekly Support: $35.29
Monthly Resistance: ~$37.50
Outlook: Holding up better than gold. Above 10-day MA. Still one of the best long setups in the metals.
$GDX – Gold Miners ETF
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $51.12
Breakout Level: $53.74
Outlook: Leading gold. Day 5 of a new daily cycle. Breakout looks imminent.
$PL – Platinum
Daily Cycle Length: Day 63
Swing High Risk Level: $1,346
Outlook: Super extended. Could be topping short term. Wait for pullback, then buy the next higher low.
$NG1! – Natural Gas
Daily Support: $3.30
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $3.52
Outlook: Weekly cycle likely topped. Risk of deeper pullback. Not the cleanest setup.
$CCJ – Cameco (Uranium)
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $72.31
Weekly Support: $70.68
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
Outlook: Long-term breakout underway. Extended, but any pullback could be a buy. Monthly chart is a beast.
Final Thoughts
We're likely approaching a daily cycle pullback, but there's little evidence of structural damage on higher timeframes. Use that pullback as a buying opportunity—especially in sectors like semiconductors, uranium, and gold miners, which look primed for long-term gains.
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