The market is extended, but not exhausted. As we close out Day 27 of the daily cycle rally, some caution is warranted, but the bigger picture remains bullish. We may see a pullback soon, but long-term charts suggest we're just getting started.
✨ S&P 500 ($SPY)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 27
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $565.75
Current Risk Level: $622.43 (Daily Swing High if closed below)
Gap Support: ~$596 (gap fill aligns with 50% retracement)
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close below $615.40
Outlook: Extended on the daily cycle, potential pullback incoming. Watching gap fill around $596 before resumption higher.
🌟 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 27
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $479.20
Current Risk Level: $553.18 (Daily Swing High if closed below)
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close below $544.66
Outlook: Also extended, similar structure to $SPY. New all-time high hit; expect some digestion.
🌈 Dow Jones ($DIA)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 27
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $421.92
Current Risk Level: $445.57 (Daily Swing High if closed below)
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close below $438.66
Outlook: Playing catch-up. Still has room before reaching old highs. Constructive.
📈 Russell 2000 ($IWM)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 27
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $202.77
Current Risk Level: $221.77 (Daily Swing High if closed below)
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close below $214.15
Outlook: Hasn’t made new all-time high yet. Still the laggard. Catch-up trade setup.
🛠️ Semiconductors ($SMH)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 27
Monthly Swing Low Active Above: $216.61
Current Risk Level: $282.31 (Daily Swing High if closed below)
Weekly Risk Level: $272.16
Outlook: One of the earliest to top in 2024, now just three months into a new long-term cycle. Still early.
🌎 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 10
Daily Cycle Count: Day 11
Weekly Swing Low Trigger: Close above 97.42
Daily Swing Low Active Above: 96.95
Outlook: Short-term bounce possible. Still appears to be in long-term downtrend (Month 24).
📉 U.S. 10-Year Yield ($TNX)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 13
Daily Cycle: New cycle forming
Weekly Range: 4.19% (low) – 4.52% (high)
Daily Swing Low Active Above: 4.28%
Outlook: Tight range consolidation. Watching for break above 4.52%.
⛽ Oil ($WTIC)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 11
Daily Cycle: Bear flag structure
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $66.03
Monthly Support: $61.55
Outlook: Bear flag forming. Breakdown could test $61.50 level.
📈 TLT (20+ Yr Treasuries)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 28
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 6?
Daily Swing High Trigger: Close below $87.66
Weekly Swing Low Active Above: $85.48
Outlook: Likely late in daily cycle. Consolidation expected.
💰 Bitcoin ($BTC)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 13 or Day 24 (unclear due to failed cycle) Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
Risk Level (4hr): $108K (must hold)
Major Support: $98,225
Outlook: Still in four-year cycle rally. All-time highs possible. Watching for breakout from consolidation.
⚡ Ethereum ($ETH)
Weekly Support: $2,111 Weekly Range: $2,372 – $2,637
Outlook: Coiling for a move. When it breaks, expect velocity. ETH/BTC ratio still consolidating.
🔧 Gold ($XAUUSD)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 4
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 8
Marching toward: 8-Year Cycle High
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $3,309
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close above $3,340
Outlook: Early in new daily cycle. Potential bullish setup brewing.
🏛 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 4
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 8
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $51.12
Weekly Swing High Trigger: Close above $53.74
Outlook: Miners outperforming gold. Potential long entry forming.
🌊 Silver ($XAGUSD)
Key Support: $35.42 (must hold)
Weekly Range: $35.42 – $36.83
Outlook: Holding up better than gold. Still consolidating. Needs gold to lead breakout.
⛏️ Platinum ($PL=F)
Daily Cycle Count: Day 63 (very extended)
Swing High Trigger: Close below $1,346
Outlook: Looks like a long-term breakout. Be cautious short-term. Could be due for a cycle decline.
❄️ Natural Gas ($NG1!)
Daily Cycle: In Decline
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 10
Support: $3.19
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $3.52
Outlook: Weak. Weekly cycle likely topped. Not a buy here.
⚡ Uranium (e.g., $CCJ, $URA, $URNM)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 12
CCJ Risk Level: $72.31 (Daily Swing Low)
Watch: $70.68 (weekly low)
Outlook: Uranium sector remains early in new long-term cycle. Expect volatility but lots of upside ahead.
Summary: The market is showing signs of short-term exhaustion, but the higher time frames remain bullish. We're watching for the next daily cycle decline to present buying opportunities, especially in uranium, small caps, and crypto. Stay nimble, and respect your risk levels.
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