Intro:
Markets are pulling back, just as expected. After nearly 30 days of uninterrupted rally across $SPY, $QQQ, and $BTC, the daily cycle decline appears to have arrived.
But the key takeaway?
This isn’t the end of the move—it’s just the breather.
This week’s update covers:
Bitcoin's pullback off new all-time highs
SPY and QQQ triggering daily swing highs
Gold and miners printing fresh weekly swing lows
Natural gas and oil attempting to base
Let’s get into it.
🪙 Bitcoin ($BTC): All-Time High Hit, Now Comes the Pullback
Day 46 of current daily cycle
New ATH: $112,000
Daily swing high active below $109,217
Weekly structure still bullish; in Week 6 of cycle
Monthly chart: Month 30 of 4-year cycle
Previous tops: Month 35
📌 Bottom line: This is likely a daily cycle decline in a strong uptrend.
Be ready to buy a false breakdown or higher low.
💻 Ethereum ($ETH): Consolidation Continues, But Looks Constructive
Also in Week 6 of weekly cycle
Daily: Stuck in a tight range; key support: $2,317
Weekly swing high would activate below $2,349
Monthly swing low remains active above $1,956
ETH/BTC ratio is forming a weekly swing low for the first time in years
Potential breakout brewing—especially if ETF or stablecoin catalysts hit.
📊 SPY: Daily Swing High Confirmed, Pullback In Progress
Day 29 rally top came Monday
Swing high active below $588.00
Gap fill target: $577–$567
Potential support: ~$553 (50% retracement)
Weekly chart: Still in Week 6 of bullish cycle
Monthly swing low active above $567.42
Expect a bounce or consolidation next week.
This is likely not a trend reversal.
📈 QQQ: Holding Better Than SPY
Day 29 swing high active below $511.84
Monthly swing low still active above $479.56
No weekly lower low = stronger structure
Still outperforming SPY
Watch for support near $490 and possible gap fill below.
Short-term extended, but trend remains intact.
🏛️ DIA (Dow): Gap Filled, Lagging Behind
Daily swing high confirmed below $418.17
Weekly lower low printed
Monthly swing low remains active above $423.44
Underperforming $SPY and $QQQ
Likely catching down short term.
🔧 IWM (Small Caps): Weakest Link for Now
Monthly swing low failed this week (below $203.33)
Weekly swing high confirmed below $205.39
Daily swing high active below $203.32
IWM is leading the pullback.
Watch for recapture of $203+ as a signal for rotation back in.
🧠 SMH (Semiconductors): Key Market Signal
Failed to make new high Friday
Daily swing high active below $245.60
Gap remains open to $225
Monthly swing low active above $216.61
Weekly structure still intact
Watch for potential lead on market direction.
🌍 Macro Check: $DXY, $TNX, $TLT
$DXY (Dollar Index)
Weekly cycle topped after 3 weeks, now in early decline
Weekly swing high confirmed below $100.27
Daily cycle in Day 24 of decline → room to go
Target zone: ~$97–$98
Dollar weakness aligns with bullish risk asset backdrop.
$TNX (10-Year Yield)
Weekly cycle: Week 7
Attempting breakout above 4.59%
Daily swing high risk below 4.53%
Monthly range remains tight (since Nov 2023)
Trend: short-term bullish, longer-term neutral
$TLT / $TBT
$TLT: In Week 18 of decline; may have printed daily swing low Thursday
Needs to close above $84.43 to confirm
$TBT: Weekly inside bar; watch $39.70 / $37.14 range
Still in choppy macro range.
🛢️ Oil: Consolidation Below Breakdown Levels
6 straight weeks of tight range below major support
Daily rally fading near $65
Weekly chart still vulnerable
Breakout above $65 needed to shift structure. Otherwise, still basing.
🟡 Gold: Weekly Swing Low Confirmed
Weekly swing low printed above $3,332.60
Daily cycle: Day 6 of new rally
Monthly chart: Month 33 of 8-year cycle
Previous 8Y cycles peaked around Month 35–56
This could be the start of the final leg up into long-term cycle top.
Targeting $4,000+ if structure holds.
🪙 Silver: Following Gold (But More Volatile)
Daily cycle: Day 6
Weekly breakout needs close above $33.68
Short-term structure looks bullish
Monthly swing low still active
Momentum should return if gold leads.
🟠 GDX (Miners): Aligning with Gold
Weekly swing low confirmed above $48.80
Daily structure: Day 6
Support to hold: $49.75
Still early in a new move—risk:reward remains strong.
🔥 Natural Gas ($UNG): Mixed Signals
Prior weekly cycle low may hold
Daily swing low confirmed above $3.23
Weekly structure depends on holding $3.07
Needs breakout above $3.40 to resume trend
Still grinding—but setup is there if it holds.
✅ Final Takeaways:
Markets are pulling back—but that’s healthy
Bitcoin and SPY daily swing highs in place
Miners and gold showing early reversal strength
Semis and small caps may lead the next move
Watch for false breakdowns and bullish swing lows next week
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$BTC: $109,217 (swing high) | $100,600 (range support)
$ETH: $2,317 support | $2,349 weekly risk
$SPY: $588 swing high | $577–$567 gap fill
$QQQ: $511.84 swing high | $501 support
$SMH: $245.60 support | $225 gap fill risk
$GC: $3,332.60 swing low trigger
$UNG: $3.23 swing low | $3.40 breakout level
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