Intro:
We’re continuing to see the bottoming process unfold, with strong rally continuation across $SPY, $QQQ, and semis.
But a daily cycle decline is likely coming soon—and it will be buyable if this really is the long-term bottom.
This week’s update covers:
Where $SPY and $QQQ stand in relation to monthly swing lows
Why semis and small caps are sending early bull signals
Macro divergences in $DXY and $TNX
Crypto, gold, and natural gas outlooks
Let’s dive in.
📊 $SPY: The Rally Is Real, but Watch for Pullback
Daily cycle: Day 18 of the rally
Weekly cycle: Week 3
Monthly swing low confirmation above $567.42
Price nearly touched that level—pullback likely soon
Next upside target: $576 (last failed rally high)
Quarterly candle: Setting up a bullish outside candle
Expect a 5–10% pullback sometime in May, especially around FOMC or debt ceiling headlines. That dip is your opportunity.
💻 $QQQ: Outperforming and Leading Higher
Already above its monthly swing low level: $479.56
Next upside target: $493.62
Quarterly chart: Clean bullish setup forming
Daily cycle: Also Day 18—due for a pause
$QQQ/$SPY ratio is accelerating. Tech continues to lead.
🏛️ $DIA (Dow): Lagging
No monthly swing low yet — needs trade above $423.44
Still trading below the FOMC pause candle
Not the place to be while other indices show leadership
🧨 $IWM (Small Caps): Waking Up
Monthly swing level: $203.33
Recent performance shows IWM/SPY ratio turning higher
Structure aligning for small caps to join the rally
Leveraged play ($TNA) would need to break above $30.90 for a monthly swing
If IWM confirms strength, this becomes a full market move.
🔌 $SMH (Semiconductors): Bullish Leadership Reasserting
Monthly swing low confirmed above $216.61
Still below key resistance at $227 and $235
Topped in July 2024—may now be forming a major bottom
SMH/SPY ratio showing bullish reversal on monthly chart
Semis were the first to fall. If they bottom early, the rest of the market should follow.
🌍 Macro: The Dollar, Yields & Bonds
$DXY (US Dollar Index)
Weekly cycle low formed at Week 30
Closed above swing level ($99.94) but showing signs of a short-term top
Day 9 of a new daily cycle—left-translated setup likely
Long-term monthly chart still looks bearish
Short-term bounce in a long-term decline.
$TNX (10-Year Yield)
Weekly cycle in Week 4
Support to watch: 4.12%
Daily cycle on Day 18—likely more upside
Diverging from $DXY for now
Bond market strength remains a key macro signal.
$TLT / $TBT
$TLT in a likely weekly cycle decline
Needs to hold above $87.54
$TBT showing opposite action
Weekly structure bullish
Support to hold: $33.97
🪙 Crypto: BTC Leading, ETH Lagging
$BTC
Weekly cycle in Week 3
Holding above swing low from $86,500
Daily structure consolidating between $92,880–$96,000
Monthly candle forming a bullish outside bar
Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in the space.
$ETH
Still below key breakout level: $1,841
Needs to stay above $1,688
Relative strength still favors $BTC
🟡 Gold, Silver & Miners
$GC (Gold)
Weekly cycle entering decline (Week 17)
Weekly swing high confirmed below $3,260
Daily swing high below $3,336
Next support zone: ~$3,168
Expect continued profit-taking.
$SI (Silver)
Weaker than gold
Support to watch: $30.82
Likely in both daily and weekly cycle decline
$GDX (Miners)
Daily swing high below $50.95
Weekly swing high confirmed below $47.77
Likely to test low $40s if gold stays weak
GDX/GLD ratio turned bearish—miners underperforming
🔥 Natural Gas ($UNG): Fresh Momentum
New weekly cycle likely starting
Daily swing low formed around $3.06 with follow-through
Friday’s move suggests more upside ahead
Tactical long setups forming in natural gas.
✅ Final Takeaways:
$SPY and $QQQ are rallying—but we’re deep into the current daily cycle
Expect a pullback in May—potentially triggered by FOMC or macro headlines
Semis and small caps are starting to lead
$BTC remains the strongest chart in crypto
Gold is rolling over, miners are weakening
Natural gas shows fresh upside
The bottom is forming—be ready to buy the dip, not chase the rip.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$SPY: $567.42 (monthly swing low) | $576 (lower high target)
$QQQ: $493.62 (resistance) | $479.56 (must hold for monthly)
$BTC: $95,128 breakout trigger
$Gold: $3,260 (weekly swing high)
$UNG: Watch $3.06 for follow-throug
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