Introduction:
As of February 23, 2025, the broader market is in a daily cycle decline. The big question: Are we also entering a weekly cycle decline?
📉 SPY & QQQ broke key levels—gap fills ahead?
📉 SMH, DIA, IWM showing weakness—rotation out of risk?
📉 DXY, 10-Year Yields declining, but still no sign of bottoming.
📉 Gold & Silver looking extended—short-term pullback coming?
This could be the start of a larger move, so let’s break it all down.
Market Breakdown & Key Levels:
📊 SPY ($SPY) – Major Warning Signs
Topped at $613.23 on Feb 19, now declining.
Critical support: $598.51 → If lost, expect a full gap fill to $584.
Bearish outside candle forming on the weekly—watch for confirmation.
💡 Big picture: If this is a left-translated weekly cycle, we could see 10+ weeks of downside.
📊 QQQ ($QQQ) – Bearish Pattern Emerging
Same structure as $SPY, but leading to the downside.
Key support: $521.95 → If lost, expect a breakdown below $511.
Ratio of $QQQ to $SPY turned lower before the overall market—early warning sign.
📊 DIA ($DIA) – Already in Weekly Cycle Decline
Did NOT make a new all-time high, unlike SPY/QQQ.
Lower highs since late January.
Key support: $439.88 → Below this, expect more downside.
Dow-to-SPY ratio breaking down hard—massive underperformance.
👀 If shorting, DIA may be the best target.
📊 IWM ($IWM) – Small Caps at All-Time Lows vs. QQQ
Horrible relative weakness.
All-time lows in $IWM/$QQQ ratio—historic underperformance.
If this turns around, could be a major rotation trade, but no sign of reversal yet.
📉 Bottom line: Avoid small caps until we see confirmation of strength.
📊 SMH ($SMH) – Semis Facing a Key Breakdown
Holding up better than others, but still at risk.
Key level: $254.92 → Needs to reclaim for bulls to have hope.
Expect a compound bearish outside candle on the weekly.
🚨 If this breaks down, tech will struggle across the board.
The Macro Picture: Bonds, Yields, and Commodities
📉 $DXY – Dollar Still Weak, But Bottoming Soon?
Day 19 of the daily cycle decline.
Key breakdown level: $106.30 → Below this, expect further weakness.
BUT it’s also Week 21 of the weekly cycle—due for a bounce soon.
📉 10-Year Yield ($TNX) – Hugging Key Support
Week 21 of decline—no clear bottoming signal yet.
Critical support: 4.39% → If broken, yields could drop fast.
Lower yields = good for risk assets, but stocks still declining.
📌 Lower yields + market pullback = possible risk-off move?
Crypto Breakdown: Still in Consolidation Mode
📊 Bitcoin ($BTC) – Stuck in a Range
Holding support at ~$93K-$94K, but structure remains weak.
Break below $93K likely sends it to retest lower support around $88K-$89K.
No clear breakout—waiting for confirmation.
📊 Ethereum ($ETH) – Danger Below $2,500
Structurally weaker than Bitcoin.
If $2,500 fails, we likely revisit $2,100.
Ethereum still lagging BTC—no bullish divergence.
🚨 No strong buying signals yet—patience is key.
Gold, Silver, and Commodities
📊 Gold ($GC) – Strong Weekly Cycle, But Overextended
Week 7 of the rally—due for consolidation soon.
Daily cycle has barely pulled back—watch for signs of cooling off.
Gold miners ($GDX) showing weakness—could be a leading signal.
📊 Silver ($SI) – Weekly Structure Looking Weaker Than Gold
Ugly wicks—lots of selling into strength.
Key breakdown level: $32 → Below that, downside opens up.**
Daily cycle topping out—expect more consolidation.
📊 Natural Gas ($UNG) – Potential Trend Shift?
Day 15 of a new daily cycle.
Weekly cycle may have already bottomed.
Key level: Stay above $4.14 for continued upside.**
🔥 If confirmed, this could be a major reversal trade!
Final Thoughts: Are We Entering a Bigger Market Pullback?
Daily cycle decline in full force across indices.
Weekly cycle decline in play for $DIA, possibly for $SPY & $QQQ soon.
$SMH, $IWM, and $DIA looking weakest—potential short setups?
Crypto still choppy—no strong breakout signal yet.
Gold & Silver due for a pause, while Natural Gas could be turning.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✔️ Markets are rolling over—stay defensive.
✔️ Watch key support levels in $SPY, $QQQ, & $SMH for breakdowns.
✔️ DXY and 10-year yields near cycle lows—bounces could change everything.
✔️ Gold & Silver looking tired, but no major reversal signs yet.
✔️ Crypto still in consolidation—wait for confirmation.
Call to Action:
Markets are at a turning point—is this just a pullback or the start of a bigger move?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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