🔑 Market Overview
SPY, QQQ, DIA all logged inside days on Monday.
The S&P 500 ($SPY) is now on Week 20 of its weekly cycle – late, but still holding higher lows.
Friday’s big green candle (post-Jackson Hole) formed a daily swing low at $639.66.
We are consolidating inside that candle’s range: $637.25–$646.50.
Higher lows suggest the rally isn’t over, but late-cycle rallies can turn fast.
🟢 S&P 500 ($SPY)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 20
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $639.66
Friday Range: $637.25–$646.50
Inside Day: Monday
Outlook: Higher low vs prior swing. Likely a push to new highs this week, but risk rises as weekly cycle stretches.
🟢 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $571.57
Doji Range (Monday): $573.29–$569.16
Below 10DMA – showing relative weakness.
Outlook: Needs reclaim above $571.57 for a buy trigger. Ratio vs $SPY still in decline, a caution flag.
🟢 Dow Jones ($DIA)
Monday Range: $456.19–$453.03
Relative Strength vs $SPY
Outlook: Starting a relative uptrend vs $SPY, which often occurs in corrections. Still range-bound.
🟢 Russell 2000 ($IWM)
Monday Range: $234.30–$232.36
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 20
Monthly: Still below all-time highs (~$244)
Outlook: Waking up. Potential catch-up trade. Magnet toward new all-time highs likely before cycle decline. Leveraged play: $TNA.
🟢 Semiconductors ($SMH)
Monday Range: $295.79–$292.20
Formed daily swing low
Outlook: Relative strength vs $SPY. Still consolidating, but semis remain long-term leadership.
💵 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
Weekly Cycle: Week 19
Key Support: 97.42
Monthly: 24 months into decline, bear flag structure.
Outlook: Sideways for now, but bias remains bearish longer-term.
💵 U.S. 10-Year Yield ($TNX)
Weekly Cycle: Week 21
Range: 3.88–4.59% (sideways since April)
Daily Swing High Active Below: 4.29%
Outlook: Still consolidating inside April’s huge range. Not much signal until breakout.
🛢️ Crude Oil ($WTI)
Weekly Cycle: Week 19
Support: $61.45
Outlook: Declining while equities rise. Potential bounce due to cycle timing, but trend still weak.
💵 TLT (20+ Yr Treasuries ETF)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $86.92
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Outlook: Consolidating. Options IV very low – potential trade once Fed policy clarity comes.
₿ Bitcoin ($BTC)
Weekly Cycle: Week 20
Swing High Active Below: $116,859
Must Reclaim: $110,810 for daily swing low confirmation
Outlook: In weekly downtrend, but likely bottoming near-term. Surprises should come to upside.
🟣 Ethereum ($ETH)
Weekly: Bullish outside candle last week
Daily Support: $4,311
Structure: Consolidating inside multi-year box
Outlook: Stronger than BTC. Clear higher low forming. Big-picture breakout toward $10K possible over next 12–18 months. ETH is the trade.
🪙 Gold ($XAUUSD)
Weekly Cycle: Week 15
Support: $3,330
Resistance: $3,375
Outlook: Sideways consolidation. Patience required, but late 8-year cycle suggests breakout ahead.
🪙 Silver ($XAGUSD)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $37.96
Daily Support: $37.52
Outlook: Long-term bullish, short-term consolidation. Watching for reclaim above $38.
🪙 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)
Support: $51.37
Resistance: $57.52
Outlook: Consolidating at higher end of range. Room for explosive upside as gold breaks out.
🪙 Platinum ($PL=F)
Swing High Active Below: $1,400
Swing Low Attempt: $1,323
Outlook: Forming daily swing low, but still in weekly decline. Good case study in avoiding FOMO tops.
🔥 Natural Gas ($NG1!)
Monday Range: $2.75–$2.69
Daily Swing Low Possible Above: $2.75
Outlook: Late in weekly decline. Break above $2.75 sets up weekly cycle low.
☢️ Uranium ($CCJ, $URA, $URNM, $UUUU)
CCJ Swing Low Active Above: $71.52
Support: $74.65
URA Resistance: $50.77
Outlook: Consolidating after big April rebound. $UUUU especially strong. Multi-year breakout in progress.
📌 Summary
Equities ($SPY, $QQQ) are late in a 20-week rally but holding higher lows.
Ethereum remains the standout trade, with BTC lagging.
Precious metals consolidating; silver and GDX look coiled.
Uranium still bullish long-term despite near-term consolidation.
Be nimble: late-cycle rallies often come with traps and volatility.
