This week’s spotlight belongs to Ethereum, which is starting to outperform Bitcoin after a long consolidation. Meanwhile, the S&P and Nasdaq made fresh all-time highs again, and we may have seen a sneaky daily cycle low form mid-week. We’ll cover the usual macro names, but we’ll start with crypto and end with commodities like uranium, platinum, and oil.
🔶 Ethereum ($ETH)
4h Bull Flag Breakout Above: $3,578
Daily Cycle Day: 27
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Resistance Ahead: $4,000–$4,100
Monthly Chart Breakout Confirmed
Outlook: ETH is leading crypto now. It broke out on the monthly ETH/BTC ratio and is consolidating in a textbook bull flag on the 4h. A move above $3,578 likely takes us to $4,000+. Outperforming BTC all the way into Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle high would mean massive ETH upside.
🔶 Bitcoin ($BTC)
Swing High Active Below: $118,949
Daily Resistance: $118,564
Weekly Support: $98,225
4-Year Cycle High Expected: Late 2025
Outlook: Still consolidating. A clean break above $118,949 opens the door to new highs. Until then, chop continues. ETH likely steals the spotlight short term.
🌐 S&P 500 ($SPY)
Daily Swing High Trigger Below: $626.46
Daily Cycle Day: 37
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Support to Watch: $615.40
Outlook: Market remains extended but resilient. Friday’s red close could be noise or the start of a new daily cycle. A close below $626.46 would confirm the top is in. If DIA is any clue, we may have already reset the daily cycle with a stealth low midweek.
🌐 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)
Friday Low (must hold): $559.98
Daily Cycle Day: 37
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Outlook: Like SPY, made a new ATH Friday but closed red. Still very strong structurally. Watch $559.98 for any shift in momentum.
🌐 Dow Jones ($DIA)
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $442.43
Daily Cycle Day: 2 (reset midweek?)
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Outlook: Might have stealth-formed a new daily cycle low. Watch for confirmation this week. A higher low here would be bullish.
🌐 Russell 2000 ($IWM)
Swing High Active Below: $222.86
Friday Low: $218.53
Still Below All-Time High
Outlook: Lagging the majors. Still range-bound but coiling. Small caps will eventually catch up—watch for rotation.
🌐 Semiconductors ($SMH)
Friday Low: $289.33
All-Time High to Beat: $293.20
Weekly Chart: Extended, needs cool-off
Outlook: Slight double top forming. Would prefer a pullback before adding. Expecting consolidation or minor reset.
🌐 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
Weekly Swing Low Active Above: 96.38
Watch for Weekly Swing High Below: 97.71
Daily Pivot: 98.10
Outlook: Weekly chart trying to reverse higher, but momentum fading. Looks like a lower high is forming. Breakdown below 98.10 would confirm.
🌐 U.S. 10-Year Yield ($TNX)
Daily Swing High Active Below: 4.44%
Weekly Range: Still inside April’s candle
Target Range: 4.11% or lower
Outlook: Consolidation continues. Daily swing high suggests short-term move lower in yields, but weekly structure unchanged.
🌐 TLT (20+ Year Treasuries ETF)
Daily Cycle Day: 38
Swing High Active Below: $86.85
Support to Hold: $84.19
Outlook: Range-bound with choppy price action. Close watch on $84.19. Breakdown would confirm weekly cycle rollover.
🌐 Gold ($XAUUSD)
Daily Cycle Day: 13
Swing High Trigger Below: $3,339
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 9
Range Compression: 3 inside months
Outlook: Coiling tightly. A break is imminent. Monthly and weekly charts suggest the 8-year cycle high is still ahead. Watch $3,339.
🌐 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $51.47
Daily Structure: Potential bearish outside bar forming
Outlook: More sideways action. Bulls want to reclaim $51.47 quickly. Miners still lagging metals.
🌐 Silver ($XAGUSD)
Support to Hold: $37.51
Daily Cycle Day: 13
Weekly Range: $37.51 – $39.13
Outlook: Bull flag intact. Much stronger than gold. Watch for recapture or bounce off $37.51. Still a prime breakout candidate.
🌐 Platinum ($PL=F)
Weekly Range: $1,390 – $1,491
Daily Cycle Day: 63
Monthly Chart: Breakout from 30-month base
Outlook: Still running. Extremely extended, but momentum strong. When daily cycle finally rolls, watch $1,330 for re-entry.
🌐 Natural Gas ($NG1!)
Daily Cycle Day: 7
Weekly Support: $3.08
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $3.30
Outlook: Potential double bottom. Good early-stage daily cycle action. Needs follow-through.
🌐 Uranium (via $CCJ, $URA, $URNM)
$CCJ Friday Range: $77.38–$80.50
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 14
Monthly Cycle: Month 3 of new uptrend
Outlook: May be getting extended short-term, but long-term cycle is early. Any pullback could present a high-conviction buying opportunity.
Summary:
Ethereum is finally waking up vs. Bitcoin, and that’s likely to create a major trend shift across crypto. In equities, the rally continues with all-time highs in $SPY and $QQQ, while the Dow and small caps play catch-up. Meanwhile, gold and silver are coiling for a potential breakout. Uranium and platinum are still trending strong, though extended. The trend is up—but we’re late in the daily cycle for many names, so use caution when adding exposure.
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