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Transcript

Late-Cycle Signals Are Flashing

Markets stretched after rallying for 18 weeks but Ethereum, gold, and uranium are set up for a big move after the pullback

Markets remain extended, but opportunities are taking shape. Ethereum is the standout — pulling back after a 52-day rally, offering a clear line in the sand for the next leg higher. Stocks continue to stretch their weekly cycles, with SPY, QQQ, and DIA showing signs of fatigue but still holding higher-timeframe support. Precious metals are consolidating, platinum is cooling after a big run, and uranium remains in a powerful long-term breakout structure. Let’s break it down.


🌐 Ethereum ($ETH)

  • Swing High Active Below: $4,562.87

  • Near-Term Support: $4,368

  • First Resistance to Reclaim: $4,478

Outlook: ETH rallied 52 days before topping midweek. Pullback now offers opportunity — watch for reclaim of $4,478 as the tactical long signal. Bigger picture, ETH remains structurally strong, with long-term targets toward $10K.


🌐 Bitcoin ($BTC)

  • Swing High Active Below: $124,533

  • Must Hold Support: $117,208

  • Reclaim Level: $117,000

Outlook: Consolidating below recent highs. Needs to stay above $117K. A break back above $117K with follow-through would set up continuation toward 4-year cycle highs later this year.


🌐 S&P 500 ($SPY)

  • Swing High Active Below: $630.77

  • Daily Support to Watch: $642.68

  • Weekly Cycle Count: Week 18

Outlook: Market is stretched — 46-day rally into early August before sharp two-day pullback. Friday closed inside a tight 3-day range. Watch for false breakdowns below $642.68 followed by a reclaim. Long-term trend intact, but mean reversion risk rising.


🌐 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)

  • Swing High Active Below: $578.84

  • Weekly Support: $571.57

  • Cycle Count: Week 18

Outlook: Already closed with a swing high on the daily. Watch $578.84 to reclaim bullish momentum. Weekly swing high risk looms if $571.57 fails next week.


🌐 Dow Jones ($DIA)

  • Swing High Active Below: $442.84

  • Daily Gap Range: $437.76 – $440.50

Outlook: Underperformed SPY and QQQ. Rally attempts likely capped near $442.84. Relative strength vs SPY flashing caution.


🌐 Russell 2000 ($IWM)

  • Swing High Active Below: $227.83

  • Key Support: $222.66

Outlook: Also printing a daily swing high. Needs to hold $222.66 or risk deeper retrace. Still has room to catch up to all-time highs, but patience required.


🌐 Semiconductors ($SMH)

  • Swing High Active Below: $298.57

  • Support: $293.94

Outlook: Touched 10-day moving average for first time in weeks. Daily swing high active. Possible start of a broader pullback unless reclaimed quickly.


🌐 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)

  • Swing High Active Below: 98.61

  • Key Level to Hold: 97.42

Outlook: Daily bearish outside candle points to weakness. Risk of lower high forming. Rare setup on the monthly could produce back-to-back opposite outside candles — watch closely.


🌐 U.S. 10-Year Yield ($TNX)

  • Weekly Range: 3.88 – 4.59%

  • Daily Swing Low Active Above: 4.23%

Outlook: Still consolidating inside broad April range. Likely to test lower end (4.12 – 3.88%) in coming weeks. Weekly cycle aging (Week 19).


🌐 TLT (20+ Yr Treasuries ETF)

  • Swing High Active Below: $87.78

  • Near-Term Support: $86.92

Outlook: Daily swing high in place. Watch for reclaim above $86.78 as tradable reversal. Structurally still consolidating.


🌐 Gold ($XAUUSD)

  • Daily Swing High Active Below: $3,345

  • Support: $3,329

  • Resistance: $3,375

Outlook: Frustrating chop, but bigger picture still coiling for breakout into 8-year cycle top. Watch $3,329 for support — dip & reclaim would be actionable.


🌐 Silver ($XAGUSD)

  • Weekly Swing High Active Below: $37.96

  • Daily Support: $37.52

Outlook: Hasn’t traded this high in a decade. Weekly swing high risk if $37.96 isn’t reclaimed. Still structurally bullish above $35–36 zone.


🌐 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)

  • Daily Swing High Active Below: $57.52

Outlook: Consolidating at upper range. Any dip/reclaim below $57.52 sets up explosive upside if gold confirms higher.


🌐 Platinum ($PL=F)

  • Weekly Swing High Active Below: $1,440

  • Daily Swing Low Trigger Above: $1,323

Outlook: Monster run finally cooling. Daily swing low above $1,323 would offer tactical long. Weekly count suggests more upside possible — but don’t chase.


🌐 Natural Gas ($NG1!)

  • Daily Swing Low Active Above: $2.83

  • Weekly Support: $2.98

Outlook: Daily swing low printed; watch for follow-through above $2.98 to confirm weekly low. Attractive asymmetric setup if confirmed.


🌐 Uranium ($CCJ, $URA, $URNM)

  • CCJ Range: $80.32 – $69.92

  • URA Target: $50.77

Outlook: Long-term breakout structure intact. Consolidating after huge move. Any dips toward range lows offer accumulation opportunity for next leg higher.


Summary

Ethereum’s pullback is the most actionable setup — clear swing high and swing low levels to trade around. Bitcoin consolidates, while equities stretch late-cycle but remain bullish overall. Precious metals are coiling, platinum is pulling back, and uranium continues to build energy for the next breakout.

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