Markets remain extended, but opportunities are taking shape. Ethereum is the standout — pulling back after a 52-day rally, offering a clear line in the sand for the next leg higher. Stocks continue to stretch their weekly cycles, with SPY, QQQ, and DIA showing signs of fatigue but still holding higher-timeframe support. Precious metals are consolidating, platinum is cooling after a big run, and uranium remains in a powerful long-term breakout structure. Let’s break it down.
🌐 Ethereum ($ETH)
Swing High Active Below: $4,562.87
Near-Term Support: $4,368
First Resistance to Reclaim: $4,478
Outlook: ETH rallied 52 days before topping midweek. Pullback now offers opportunity — watch for reclaim of $4,478 as the tactical long signal. Bigger picture, ETH remains structurally strong, with long-term targets toward $10K.
🌐 Bitcoin ($BTC)
Swing High Active Below: $124,533
Must Hold Support: $117,208
Reclaim Level: $117,000
Outlook: Consolidating below recent highs. Needs to stay above $117K. A break back above $117K with follow-through would set up continuation toward 4-year cycle highs later this year.
🌐 S&P 500 ($SPY)
Swing High Active Below: $630.77
Daily Support to Watch: $642.68
Weekly Cycle Count: Week 18
Outlook: Market is stretched — 46-day rally into early August before sharp two-day pullback. Friday closed inside a tight 3-day range. Watch for false breakdowns below $642.68 followed by a reclaim. Long-term trend intact, but mean reversion risk rising.
🌐 Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ)
Swing High Active Below: $578.84
Weekly Support: $571.57
Cycle Count: Week 18
Outlook: Already closed with a swing high on the daily. Watch $578.84 to reclaim bullish momentum. Weekly swing high risk looms if $571.57 fails next week.
🌐 Dow Jones ($DIA)
Swing High Active Below: $442.84
Daily Gap Range: $437.76 – $440.50
Outlook: Underperformed SPY and QQQ. Rally attempts likely capped near $442.84. Relative strength vs SPY flashing caution.
🌐 Russell 2000 ($IWM)
Swing High Active Below: $227.83
Key Support: $222.66
Outlook: Also printing a daily swing high. Needs to hold $222.66 or risk deeper retrace. Still has room to catch up to all-time highs, but patience required.
🌐 Semiconductors ($SMH)
Swing High Active Below: $298.57
Support: $293.94
Outlook: Touched 10-day moving average for first time in weeks. Daily swing high active. Possible start of a broader pullback unless reclaimed quickly.
🌐 U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)
Swing High Active Below: 98.61
Key Level to Hold: 97.42
Outlook: Daily bearish outside candle points to weakness. Risk of lower high forming. Rare setup on the monthly could produce back-to-back opposite outside candles — watch closely.
🌐 U.S. 10-Year Yield ($TNX)
Weekly Range: 3.88 – 4.59%
Daily Swing Low Active Above: 4.23%
Outlook: Still consolidating inside broad April range. Likely to test lower end (4.12 – 3.88%) in coming weeks. Weekly cycle aging (Week 19).
🌐 TLT (20+ Yr Treasuries ETF)
Swing High Active Below: $87.78
Near-Term Support: $86.92
Outlook: Daily swing high in place. Watch for reclaim above $86.78 as tradable reversal. Structurally still consolidating.
🌐 Gold ($XAUUSD)
Daily Swing High Active Below: $3,345
Support: $3,329
Resistance: $3,375
Outlook: Frustrating chop, but bigger picture still coiling for breakout into 8-year cycle top. Watch $3,329 for support — dip & reclaim would be actionable.
🌐 Silver ($XAGUSD)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $37.96
Daily Support: $37.52
Outlook: Hasn’t traded this high in a decade. Weekly swing high risk if $37.96 isn’t reclaimed. Still structurally bullish above $35–36 zone.
🌐 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)
Daily Swing High Active Below: $57.52
Outlook: Consolidating at upper range. Any dip/reclaim below $57.52 sets up explosive upside if gold confirms higher.
🌐 Platinum ($PL=F)
Weekly Swing High Active Below: $1,440
Daily Swing Low Trigger Above: $1,323
Outlook: Monster run finally cooling. Daily swing low above $1,323 would offer tactical long. Weekly count suggests more upside possible — but don’t chase.
🌐 Natural Gas ($NG1!)
Daily Swing Low Active Above: $2.83
Weekly Support: $2.98
Outlook: Daily swing low printed; watch for follow-through above $2.98 to confirm weekly low. Attractive asymmetric setup if confirmed.
🌐 Uranium ($CCJ, $URA, $URNM)
CCJ Range: $80.32 – $69.92
URA Target: $50.77
Outlook: Long-term breakout structure intact. Consolidating after huge move. Any dips toward range lows offer accumulation opportunity for next leg higher.
Summary
Ethereum’s pullback is the most actionable setup — clear swing high and swing low levels to trade around. Bitcoin consolidates, while equities stretch late-cycle but remain bullish overall. Precious metals are coiling, platinum is pulling back, and uranium continues to build energy for the next breakout.
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