Introduction:
It’s February 28, 2025, and we’re wrapping up the month with some major technical signals.
📉 SPY & QQQ in daily cycle decline—is this the start of a bigger pullback?
📉 Bearish monthly candle forming—a warning sign for the longer trend?
📉 Gold & Silver finally pulling back after extended rallies.
📉 Crypto breakdown—Bitcoin & Ethereum losing key levels.
📈 DXY & 10-Year Yield stabilizing—new trend shift coming?
Let’s break it all down before the market opens.
Market Breakdown & Key Levels:
📊 SPY ($SPY) – Bearish Monthly Setup
Day 31 of the daily cycle decline—due for a bounce soon?
Major range: $598 (high) → $584 (low)
Bearish outside candle on the weekly—expect continued weakness.
Monthly chart setting up a bearish outside candle—watch for a break below $577.75
📌 Key Takeaway: If SPY closes below $584, we could see a move to $575, with deeper downside possible.
📊 QQQ ($QQQ) – Breaking Down Towards Key Support
Thursday’s massive range: $519 (high) → $500 (low)
Testing key weekly support at $499.70—a breakdown would confirm more selling.
Monthly chart shows a lower low forming—first time in 28 months!
🚨 A break below $499.70 opens up downside to $483!
📊 DIA ($DIA) – Leading the Breakdown
Already in weekly cycle decline.
Next major support: $417—still a long way down.
Needs to reclaim $439 for any meaningful bounce.
📉 Dow stocks looking weaker than tech—bearish rotation continues.
📊 IWM ($IWM) – Small Caps in Breakdown Mode
Breaking out of a multi-month consolidation—TO THE DOWNSIDE.
Below November’s low of $217—a long-term cycle high may be confirmed.
Next major level: $200
📌 Russell 2000 is flashing warning signs—risk-off environment?
📊 SMH ($SMH) – Semiconductors at a Critical Level
Massive range: $246 (high) → $229 (low)
Key level: $227—if lost, the entire consolidation may be a bearish setup.
Monthly chart shows long-term topping potential—careful here.
👀 Is the AI bubble slowing down?
The Macro Picture: DXY, Bonds, and Commodities
📈 $DXY – Dollar Showing Strength, Market Reacting
Daily cycle low confirmed on Day 22.
Now on Day 2 of a new daily cycle—bullish short-term.
Potential new weekly cycle low forming.
📌 If the dollar is rallying, risk assets may struggle.
📉 10-Year Yield ($TNX) – Still Declining
No sign of bottoming yet—opposite of $DXY.
Key breakdown level: 4.39% → below this, yields could drop fast.
Lower yields = good for bonds, but why are stocks still falling?
🔍 Watch for divergence between bonds & stocks—something’s not adding up.
Crypto Breakdown: Bitcoin & Ethereum Weakness
📊 Bitcoin ($BTC) – Breakdown Below Key Levels
Bear flag resolved lower—now testing $81K.
Break below $93K confirmed downside risk.
Potential next support: $69K-$70K
📌 No bullish signals—wait for a swing low.
📊 Ethereum ($ETH) – Holding $2,100… For Now
Still above its key wick at $2,100, but barely.
A drop below $2,000 could trigger panic selling.
No bullish divergence yet—ETH weaker than BTC.
🚨 If $2,100 fails, $ETH could see a sharp drop.
Gold, Silver, and Commodities
📊 Gold ($GC) – Finally Cooling Off
Rallied for 47 days—now seeing first real pullback.
Needs to hold above $2,888 to avoid deeper correction.
Weekly cycle still intact, but watch for a daily swing low.
📌 Bigger trend still bullish, but chasing here is dangerous.
📊 Silver ($SI) – Breaking Down
Needs a close above $32.76 to find support.
Ugly weekly structure—risk is to the downside.
📉 Silver could lead the way lower before gold.
📊 Natural Gas ($UNG) – Short-Term Weakness
Daily cycle top likely in at Day 14.
Needs to stay above $4.14 for bulls to remain in control.
Weekly inside bar—waiting for a breakout.
📌 Is this just a pause, or is NatGas rolling over again?
Final Thoughts: Are We Seeing a Major Market Shift?
SPY & QQQ breaking key levels—bearish monthly candle setup.
Small caps & semiconductors showing relative weakness.
Crypto breaking down—BTC & ETH lost key support.
DXY rebounding, while 10-Year Yield continues lower.
Gold & Silver finally pulling back—watch for buying opportunities.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✔️ The market is shifting—risk-off signals everywhere.
✔️ If SPY loses $584, the next leg down could be fast.
✔️ Crypto still searching for a bottom—watch for confirmation.
✔️ Gold & Silver correcting after massive runs.
✔️ The dollar is rising—will it capsize the market further?
Call to Action:
Markets are changing fast—is this the beginning of a deeper correction?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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