Introduction:
As of March 8, 2025, we may finally be seeing a daily cycle low forming in the markets.
📉 SPY, QQQ, & DIA may be bottoming—but weekly cycles are still declining.
📉 DXY remains weak, while 10-Year Yields show signs of rebounding.
📈 Gold & Silver retracing after extended rallies.
📉 Bitcoin & Ethereum still struggling to find direction.
📈 Natural Gas showing long-term strength—breakout ahead?
Is this just a short-term bounce or a real reversal? Let’s break it down.
Market Breakdown & Key Levels:
📊 SPY ($SPY) – Potential Daily Swing Low Forming
Day 37 of the daily cycle—extremely late, due for a bounce.
Friday’s low: $565.63 → If this holds, a new daily cycle begins.
Must close above $577.39 to confirm a swing low.
However, the weekly cycle is still declining (Week 7).
📌 Key Takeaway: Expect a bounce, but it may just be a lower high before another leg down.
📊 QQQ ($QQQ) – Same Setup as SPY, But Slightly Stronger
Needs to close above $493.28 for a daily swing low.
Weekly chart: Resistance at $513.00.
Still in a left-translated weekly cycle—watch for a lower high.
🚨 Short-term bounce likely, but trend remains weak.
📊 DIA ($DIA) – Oversold, Ready for a Bounce?
Needs a close above $429.32 for a daily swing low.
Bigger resistance at $440.69 on the weekly.
Similar picture as SPY & QQQ, but slightly weaker overall.
📉 A dead-cat bounce, or can the Dow finally reverse?
📊 IWM ($IWM) – Small Caps Struggling
Needs a close above $207.11 to confirm a short-term low.
On a longer time frame, November may have been a major top.
Breaking $200 opens the door to much deeper downside.
📌 Key Takeaway: Small caps remain weak—watch for relative strength before buying.
📊 SMH ($SMH) – Semiconductors in Critical Spot
Needs to close above $225.75 for a daily swing low.
Weekly resistance at $235.37.
Still in a choppy consolidation on the monthly chart.
👀 Semis have led this market—if they break lower, watch out.
The Macro Picture: Bonds, Yields, and the Dollar
📉 $DXY – Dollar in a Weak Position
Bearish pattern—daily cycle high lasted only 7 days.
Already in Week 23 of the weekly cycle—oversold?
If it breaks lower, we could see $100.00 tested.
📉 DXY looks weak—but is it due for a counter-trend rally?
📈 10-Year Yield ($TNX) – Possible Bottom Forming
Looks like we’re on Day 3 of a new daily cycle.
Weekly chart shows potential for a rebound.
If confirmed, rising yields could put pressure on stocks again.
📌 Watch for a short-term bounce—rising yields would NOT be bullish for stocks.
Crypto Breakdown: Bitcoin & Ethereum Stagnant
📊 Bitcoin ($BTC) – Weak Price Action
Still stuck in a range—daily cycle is already on Day 8 but going nowhere.
**Monthly swing high formed—not a good look for bulls.
Key resistance: $89,028 → If BTC can’t reclaim this, more downside ahead.
📉 Market structure remains weak—wait for confirmation before buying.
📊 Ethereum ($ETH) – Even Weaker Than Bitcoin
Swing high formed below $3,095.
Major resistance ahead—downside remains open.
🚨 ETH is looking worse than BTC—caution advised.
Gold, Silver, and Commodities
📊 Gold ($GC) – Finally Pulling Back
Day 5 of a new daily cycle—still early.
Key support: $2,894 → Must hold to keep the trend intact.
Weekly cycle remains bullish—expect a continuation higher.
📌 A needed pullback—could be a dip-buying opportunity soon.
📊 Silver ($SI) – Struggling to Hold Gains
Needs to close above $32.76 next week to avoid more downside.
Daily support: $32.12 → If lost, expect deeper pullback.
📉 Silver is looking weaker than gold—proceed with caution.
📊 Natural Gas ($UNG) – Looking Strong on Higher Time Frames
Month 12 of an early bull cycle.
Holding up well despite broader market weakness.
Needs to stay above $4.22 to remain in an uptrend.
📌 One of the few assets showing strength—could be a solid play.
Final Thoughts: Dead Cat Bounce or Real Reversal?
Daily cycle lows are forming—but weekly cycles are still in decline.
DXY is breaking down, but bonds/yields are stabilizing.
Gold & Silver look strong long-term but pulling back short-term.
Crypto remains in limbo—no real signs of a breakout.
Natural Gas is holding up well—one of the few bullish setups.
📌 Key Takeaways:
✔️ SPY, QQQ, DIA likely bouncing—but don’t trust it too much.
✔️ The longer trend remains weak—expect lower highs.
✔️ Bitcoin & Ethereum still look vulnerable.
✔️ Gold remains strong but due for a pause.
✔️ Natural Gas could be a sleeper trade.
Call to Action:
Is this just a short-term bounce or the start of something bigger?
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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